Montpellier


2 : 1

Nice


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

45%

Draw

28%

Away win

27%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

68%

Draw

21%

Away win

12%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.8
Diff 0.6 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 45% 28% 27%
Observed-shots-based 68% 21% 12%
Diff 22% -7% -15%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 65 56 46 63
Defence 54 37 35 44
Overall 64 47 36 53


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