Bordeaux


2 : 0

Metz


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

46%

Draw

28%

Away win

25%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

31%

Draw

27%

Away win

43%

Away Goals

1.4

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.3 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.2 1.4
Diff -0.1 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 46% 28% 25%
Observed-shots-based 31% 27% 43%
Diff -16% -2% 17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 48 78 64 11
Defence 36 89 52 22
Overall 38 92 62 8


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