Lazio


1 : 1

Roma


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.7

Home win

46%

Draw

23%

Away win

31%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

51%

Draw

26%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

1.3

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.7 1.4
Observed-shots-based 1.9 1.3
Diff 0.1 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 46% 23% 31%
Observed-shots-based 51% 26% 23%
Diff 5% 3% -8%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 53 27 49 40
Defence 51 60 47 73
Overall 54 36 46 64


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