Atalanta


2 : 3

Torino


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

66%

Draw

20%

Away win

14%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

71%

Draw

20%

Away win

9%

Away Goals

0.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.1 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.9 0.5
Diff -0.2 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 66% 20% 14%
Observed-shots-based 71% 20% 9%
Diff 4% 1% -5%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 57 41 99
Defence 59 1 54 43
Overall 51 5 49 95


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