Marseille


1 : 0

St Étienne


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.9

Home win

54%

Draw

22%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.8

Home win

26%

Draw

33%

Away win

41%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.9 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.8 1.0
Diff -1.1 -0.2

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 54% 22% 24%
Observed-shots-based 26% 33% 41%
Diff -28% 11% 17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 25 62 46 16
Defence 54 84 75 38
Overall 33 83 67 17


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