Atlético Madrid


3 : 2

Eibar


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

53%

Draw

26%

Away win

21%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

46%

Draw

31%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

0.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.9
Diff -0.2 0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 53% 26% 21%
Observed-shots-based 46% 31% 23%
Diff -7% 5% 2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 94 53 89
Defence 47 11 54 6
Overall 45 68 55 32


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