Levante


2 : 0

Real Valladolid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

47%

Draw

23%

Away win

30%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.2

Home win

48%

Draw

23%

Away win

28%

Away Goals

1.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.4
Observed-shots-based 2.2 1.7
Diff 0.3 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 47% 23% 30%
Observed-shots-based 48% 23% 28%
Diff 1% 1% -2%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 58 47 59 6
Defence 41 94 42 53
Overall 50 82 50 18


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