Internazionale


4 : 0

Lecce


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.9

Home win

78%

Draw

13%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

74%

Draw

18%

Away win

8%

Away Goals

0.6

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.9 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.1 0.6
Diff -0.8 -0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 78% 13% 8%
Observed-shots-based 74% 18% 8%
Diff -5% 5% -0%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 37 90 43 26
Defence 57 74 63 10
Overall 42 94 58 6


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