Verona


1 : 1

Bologna


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

27%

Draw

27%

Away win

46%

Away Goals

1.4

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.1

Home win

1%

Draw

9%

Away win

90%

Away Goals

1.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.0 1.4
Observed-shots-based 0.1 1.9
Diff -0.9 0.5

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 27% 27% 46%
Observed-shots-based 1% 9% 90%
Diff -27% -17% 44%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 22 94 63 22
Defence 37 78 78 6
Overall 23 94 77 6


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek