Real Madrid


1 : 1

Real Valladolid


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.7

Home win

75%

Draw

15%

Away win

11%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

65%

Draw

21%

Away win

14%

Away Goals

1.0

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.7 0.9
Observed-shots-based 2.1 1.0
Diff -0.6 0.0

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 75% 15% 11%
Observed-shots-based 65% 21% 14%
Diff -10% 6% 4%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 40 23 52 54
Defence 48 46 60 77
Overall 40 25 60 75


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