Celta de Vigo


1 : 0

Valencia


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.4

Home win

34%

Draw

24%

Away win

42%

Away Goals

1.6

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.1

Home win

53%

Draw

24%

Away win

24%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.4 1.6
Observed-shots-based 2.1 1.5
Diff 0.7 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 34% 24% 42%
Observed-shots-based 53% 24% 24%
Diff 19% -0% -19%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 67 18 49 9
Defence 51 91 33 82
Overall 63 60 37 40


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