Angers


3 : 0

Metz


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.5

Home win

51%

Draw

27%

Away win

23%

Away Goals

0.9

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

78%

Draw

19%

Away win

3%

Away Goals

0.2

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.5 0.9
Observed-shots-based 1.6 0.2
Diff 0.1 -0.7

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 51% 27% 23%
Observed-shots-based 78% 19% 3%
Diff 27% -8% -20%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 54 88 28 41
Defence 72 59 46 12
Overall 67 89 33 11


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