Watford


1 : 3

West Ham United


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.8

Home win

51%

Draw

23%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

1.3

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

2.9

Home win

22%

Draw

17%

Away win

60%

Away Goals

3.9

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.8 1.3
Observed-shots-based 2.9 3.9
Diff 1.0 2.6

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 51% 23% 26%
Observed-shots-based 22% 17% 60%
Diff -29% -6% 34%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 70 10 92 28
Defence 8 72 30 90
Overall 28 32 72 68


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