1899 Hoffenheim


3 : 2

SV Werder Bremen


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

2.4

Home win

63%

Draw

19%

Away win

18%

Away Goals

1.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

0.9

Home win

21%

Draw

26%

Away win

52%

Away Goals

1.5

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 2.4 1.2
Observed-shots-based 0.9 1.5
Diff -1.5 0.3

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 63% 19% 18%
Observed-shots-based 21% 26% 52%
Diff -42% 8% 34%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 21 97 58 67
Defence 42 33 79 3
Overall 23 86 77 14


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