Rennes


2 : 1

Paris Saint Germain


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.2

Home win

20%

Draw

20%

Away win

60%

Away Goals

2.2

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.0

Home win

41%

Draw

33%

Away win

26%

Away Goals

0.8

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.2 2.2
Observed-shots-based 1.0 0.8
Diff -0.2 -1.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 20% 20% 60%
Observed-shots-based 41% 33% 26%
Diff 21% 13% -34%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 46 83 21 64
Defence 79 36 54 17
Overall 71 72 29 28


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek