Chelsea


1 : 1

Leicester City


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.6

Home win

55%

Draw

25%

Away win

20%

Away Goals

0.8

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

52%

Draw

29%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.6 0.8
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.7
Diff -0.3 -0.1

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 55% 25% 20%
Observed-shots-based 52% 29% 19%
Diff -3% 4% -0%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 45 42 48 65
Defence 52 35 55 58
Overall 47 33 53 67


© 2020 - Dinesh Vatvani | FootballGeek