Mallorca


2 : 1

Eibar


Pre-match forecast

Home Goals

1.1

Home win

34%

Draw

29%

Away win

36%

Away Goals

1.1

Post-match analysis

The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.

Home Goals

1.3

Home win

51%

Draw

29%

Away win

19%

Away Goals

0.7

Performance review

Home xG Away xG
Pre-match 1.1 1.1
Observed-shots-based 1.3 0.7
Diff 0.2 -0.4

Home win Draw Away win
Pre-match 34% 29% 36%
Observed-shots-based 51% 29% 19%
Diff 17% -0% -17%

Home Away
Performance Index Luck Index Performance Index Luck Index
Attack 56 75 39 67
Defence 61 33 44 25
Overall 62 63 38 37


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