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Home Goals
0.7
Home win
9%
Draw
15%
Away win
76%
Away Goals
2.4
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.1
Home win
11%
Draw
19%
Away win
70%
Away Goals
2.4
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 0.7 | 2.4 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.1 | 2.4 |
Diff | 0.5 | -0.0 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 9% | 15% | 76% |
Observed-shots-based | 11% | 19% | 70% |
Diff | 3% | 3% | -6% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 64 | 13 | 51 | 97 | |
Defence | 49 | 3 | 36 | 87 | |
Overall | 57 | 1 | 43 | 99 |
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