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Home Goals
1.6
Home win
44%
Draw
25%
Away win
31%
Away Goals
1.3
The observed final result is not always an accurate reflection how well teams played, since chance can play a significant role in determining the observed final score. A shot-xG-based assessment of the match yields a more accurate measure of how well teams played. This is achieved by simulating the outcome of all shots observed in the match, each with a likelihood of conversion (shot xG) that takes into account shot location, shot type (header, etc.) and shot context (e.g. penalty, free kick, shot from a corner kick, shot from a cross, etc.). The values below represent the range of outcomes that could have been observed based on quality and number of shots taken by each team.
Home Goals
1.9
Home win
52%
Draw
26%
Away win
21%
Away Goals
1.3
Home xG | Away xG | |
---|---|---|
Pre-match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
Observed-shots-based | 1.9 | 1.3 |
Diff | 0.3 | -0.0 |
Home win | Draw | Away win | |
---|---|---|---|
Pre-match | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Observed-shots-based | 52% | 26% | 21% |
Diff | 8% | 2% | -9% |
Home | Away | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Performance Index | Luck Index | Performance Index | Luck Index | ||
Attack | 58 | 24 | 52 | 41 | |
Defence | 48 | 59 | 42 | 76 | |
Overall | 55 | 35 | 45 | 65 |
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